MUSICAL MAYHEM'S THE MAIN EVENT
The New York Post
By Michael Riedel
April 23, 2004

READY, aim, fire!
In the battle for Tony Awards, "Assassins" is poised to murder its rivals.

Produced by the Roundabout Theater Company, Stephen Sondheim and John Weidman's controversial musical about presidential assassins opened last night at Studio 54 - and for the most part, the reviews today are raves.

The worst-kept secret in the theater industry was Ben Brantley's review in The New York Times. Yesterday, you'd have been hard-pressed to find a stage doorman who hadn't heard it was terrific.

New York Times Arts and Leisure columnist Frank Rich is also said to be writing a rave. He panned the show when it debuted off-Broadway in December 1990, but is now expected to say he was wrong and that "Assassins" was ahead of its time.

The Post's Clive Barnes was cool to the show (see his review, facing page), but most of the other notices today are just about the best any musical has received this season.

With this kind of momentum behind it, "Assassins" will surely pick up plenty of Tony nominations next month.

But is it a new musical, or - because it had a brief run 13 years ago at Playwrights Horizons - is it a revival?

The answer to that question all depends on how 24 theater insiders, who sit on the Tony Awards administration committee, interpret a vaguely worded eligibility requirement.

Any show that has already appeared on Broadway is automatically considered a revival.

Where things get sticky is with a show like "Assassins," which has been around a long time, but has never been on Broadway.

A few years ago, the Tonys made a rule that any show that has not run on Broadway but is "in the historical or popular repertory may not be eligible for an award in the Best Play or Best Musical category."

Thus, "Little Shop of Horrors," which ran off-Broadway in the 1980s and has been produced thousands of times around the country, is considered a revival.

But "Assassins"?

Its original off-Broadway run was only a couple of months, and, because of its creepy subject matter, it has hardly been a staple of the "repertory," with only some 200 stock and amateur productions in the last 13 years.

Yesterday, several members of the Tony administration committee - which will make its decision May 6 - said the issue was very much up in the air.

"It could go either way," said one. "Personally, I think it's a revival."

But another said, "I don't think you can make the case that it is in the 'popular repertory.' It hasn't been done that many times. I'd vote for it as a new musical."

Another member who thinks "Assassins" should be a new show said, "It troubles me to say it was a revival. It was geared to go to Broadway originally, but it never got its shot."

A fourth member of the committee, who puts himself down as undecided, said, "It's going to be a battle. It's going to be wild in there."

The fortunes not only of "Assassins" but of the season's other musicals hang on the committee's decision.

If "Assassins" is ruled a revival, it is almost certain to snatch the award from "Wonderful Town," which is limping at the box office and will be sunk if it doesn't win.

But if "Assassins" is deemed a new musical, it will elbow "Bombay Dreams" and "The Boy From Oz" out of the field of nominees - which, in addition to "Assassins," will surely be made up of "Wicked," "Caroline, or Change" and "Avenue Q."

Sondheim will be eligible for his score, and will probably win.

Weidman's book will be nominated, and he, too, will have a very good chance of winning.

The casualty here will be "Avenue Q," which is counting on winning some writing awards. It could be shut out of the Tonys completely.

Should "Assassins" find itself in the Best Musical category, its main rival will be "Wicked," the biggest commercial hit of the season.

This will play out as an art ("Assassins") vs. commerce ("Wicked") battle.

Normally, I'd bet on commerce.

But because there is so much reverence for Sondheim in this industry - and lingering sadness over the recent failure of his musical "Bounce" - the old man might carry the day.

Whatever happens, a Tony Award race that once looked like a big bore has suddenly gotten mighty interesting.

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